Monsoon seen below normal in South Asia
Rainfall is likely to be normal over areas of the north-western and eastern parts and some islands, says forum
South Asia is likely to see a weak June-to-September monsoon season, according to a regional climate forum that concluded its fifth session in Pune on Wednesday.
Below-normal rainfall would be bad news for agriculture in a region that’s heavily dependent on the monsoon to water its crops.
Below-average rainfall is likely over broad areas of western, central and south-western parts of the region and some areas in the northeastern parts, according to the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF).
Rainfall is likely to be normal over areas of the north-western and eastern parts and some islands, said the forum, which covers Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Last year, it had forecast a normal to higher-than-normal rainfall in South Asia. The actual precipitation was above normal in the region in lines with the forecast.
In its latest outlook, the forum highlighted that none of the regions in South Asia are likely to receive higher-than-normal rainfall this year. The forum also recognized the potential for the adverse impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon on the monsoon.
There is a 70% probability of the El Nino developing this year, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology has said. In its latest update on Tuesday, the bureau said the likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by it indicating the phenomenon is likely.
The South Asia outlook does not mention India in particular. The 2014 monsoon forecast for India will be announced by the India Meteorological Department in Pune on Thursday.
In the past 10 years that have seen an El Nino event, the kharif harvest in autumn was much lower than usual. The two drought years, 2002 and 2009, in which the were El Nino phenomenon developed, saw a drop in monsoon rainfall of more than 15% and a corresponding decline in kharif output of more than 10%.
Agriculture accounts for about one-fifth of the Indian economy but employs around 49% of the working population. More than 50% of the cultivated land depends on rainfall for irrigation.
Last week, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather Services Pvt. Ltd forecast below-normal rainfall in this year’s monsoon season in India.
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